Kenyan politics are like a mission in the Kalahari Desert or in a Coastal beach where many go with a different intention but end up in the same mission which however, can be easily predicted.
In a run-up between Raila-Gideon pact with stand-alone Ruto is such a hard task anyone can experience but with the study of their history, it is like driving a car in a sloppy tarmacked bypass.
To start with, Raila has many followers which saw him second position in the previous elections. Nevertheless, the numbers can be misleading in that, Raila lost his trust to the people when;
1. He betrayed Miguna Miguna
2. Betrayed Kalonzo Musyoka in a bid of presidency
3. Betrayed ODM in dubbing never reached caanan and last but not least
4. Betraying Ledama Ole Kina for de-whipping his senatorial elect position.
With that in mind, the numbers have drastically gone to lower margins.
On the side of Gideon Moi, he has a better influence particularly in Kalenjin community but Ruto takes majority of the pie in the region.
When two merge, their numbers also merge. They will produce a greater number first, from Kalenjins and second, from the ODM supporters.
Taking the whip to Ruto, he enjoys the better part of Uhuru’s background and majority in Kalenjin. His numbers have drastically gone up reason being;
1. He enjoys sympathy vote for break up
2. He enjoys religion votes for his due support
3. He enjoys ODM rejects and lastly
4. He enjoys majority of Kenyans Votes.
When the two teams are aligned according to the numbers, Ruto will, unfortunately, lead with an early margin since most of Raila and Uhuru supporters vowed not to vote and if they do so, the votes will surely be distributed to them making no pact.